 Swine Flu |
Raserei
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With the lastest unfolding of this new and improved super flu do you feel this could be a worldwide pandemic? Do think this is worse than the bird flu?
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04-30-2009 01:12 |
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Artoir.
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Statistically speaking, you're far more at risk from common influenza which kills around 300k people per year world wide.
Compared with less than 200 from pig flu, I'm not that worried
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04-30-2009 01:15 |
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Beatrice_2
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i've said that before... this could be apart of the Apocalypse lol
i've already said to though in the irc when i found out about it.... if it is... i love you all.... its been a pleasure playing with you 
hahaha
but its kinda odd..... who would have thought.. i always thought it waz the llama's that were gunna kill the world.... but obviously its the pigs..... its always the quiet oness
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04-30-2009 01:15 |
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dezza
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i dont think it will become a worldwide pandemic
wow one baby is dead poor thing 
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04-30-2009 01:15 |
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Nemazis
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When there was bird flu, i kept eating chicken, and didn't die, so i guess swine flu won't really do anything, or at least will BARELY affect the population...
But i still call bull on it actually killing people off.
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04-30-2009 01:17 |
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Beatrice_2
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thats a bit harsh don't you think dezza ... one baby could turn it to 1 thousand.... then 1 million.... etc etc
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04-30-2009 01:17 |
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Artoir.
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Bea do your best to stay ontopic..
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04-30-2009 01:17 |
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Raserei
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If I'm not mistaken it's not actually from pigs but it's more like a mutated chicken and swine flu (I could be wrong) . I think it's a little unnerving really but as usual the media is overplaying the severity of it.
I'm not worried yet but if major outbreaks start happening in the next state over I'm running as far north as I can lol!
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04-30-2009 01:25 |
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Artoir.
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It originally came from pigs, but it is spreading human to human, so theres no need to worry about pork.
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04-30-2009 01:29 |
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nemoralis
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no its not a mutation of chicken and swine flu. It is a mutation of a flu that typically only affects pigs. Diseases that occur in animals rarely get trasmitted to humans but this has mutated in that it can now infect humans. Humans can transmit it between each other, access to pigs isn't necessary. Currently the CDC have swine flu on stage 4, when it reaches stage 5 we'll be in worldwide pandemic mode.
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04-30-2009 01:31 |
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Raxis
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They reckon a 4:10 kill rate for infected... I'd say in this country it'll be much less.... whereas in places without as many forms of influenza it'll be much higher, creating the average..
it may, and this sounds callous, but it may actually helop vut the number of AIDS sufferers.... I really hate saying that, but I will anyway
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04-30-2009 02:01 |
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nemoralis
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Raserei
| quote: |
Originally posted by Artoir.
It originally came from pigs, but it is spreading human to human, so theres no need to worry about pork. |
Right but I'm not sure it was actual zoonosis since it was a mutated form of swine and bird flu. Just like bird flu, swine flu has existed for ages but, like all bacteria/viruses, they can mutate over time. What was once a begnin pathogen is now one messed up mutation with disastrous potential. However I agree, there is little to no need to worry over eating pork, keeping pet piggy or livestock since it is the mutated gene infecting humans.
edited to add: It is at stage 5 as of today.
Good info Nem, I was under the impression it was a mutated pathogen from swine and bird. Thank you for the info! |
It is a zoonosis. The strain they are worried about is the H1N1 virus not the H3N2, which is more associated with avian influenza.
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04-30-2009 02:05 |
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Raxis
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Lol that's it H1N1 *Smacks head* couldnt remember if it was H5 or H1...
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04-30-2009 02:07 |
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Raserei
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Raxis
They reckon a 4:10 kill rate for infected... I'd say in this country it'll be much less.... whereas in places without as many forms of influenza it'll be much higher, creating the average..
it may, and this sounds callous, but it may actually helop vut the number of AIDS sufferers.... I really hate saying that, but I will anyway |
Wow, I didn't know it was that high! Sadly, like somebody else mentioned too, it'll be the less fortunate countries that suffer the greatest loss of life.
Well I can't say the exact same thought didn't cross my mind. A very sad form of population control.
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04-30-2009 02:08 |
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Artoir.
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So by your logic, genocide in middle Africa is at least helping people with AIDS?
Sick line of thought..
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04-30-2009 02:12 |
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Raxis
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I never said it wasn't. But genocide is indiscriminate. That was what i was saying, AIDS sufferers do have a weakness to this.... it's going to cause havoc if it reaches africa.
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04-30-2009 02:16 |
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Raserei
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Artoir.
So by your logic, genocide in middle Africa is at least helping people with AIDS?
Sick line of thought.. |
No, but in reality illness in humans is the same as illness in animals, it takes out the sick/unhealthy and least fit for survival. Sure it's a sick line of thought but it is reality...survival of the fittest in a very cruel way
. I don't think this is any form of genocide, I very highly doubt any govt had a hand in this.
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04-30-2009 02:27 |
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Raxis
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THa'ts not quite what he meant raserei.... but yes ultimately evolution IS survival of the fittest... because of technology genetically we are inferior to most species
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Create the infinite and expand the question.
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04-30-2009 02:46 |
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Pops
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the worst parts about this is that unlike common flu which humans have a relatively high resistance to certain strains, and bird flu to which we have a small resistance, swine flu we have virtually no resistance because we havent been exposed to it so when it hits people, our immune system is unprepared.
so if you get it, it will feel alot worse than normal flu.
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04-30-2009 07:08 |
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makavelli
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Artoir.
Statistically speaking, you're far more at risk from common influenza which kills around 300k people per year world wide.
Compared with less than 200 from pig flu, I'm not that worried |
makes me feel a bit better, but its the rate it is speading world wide that worries me. we have a couple of cases of swine flu locally. thats the worst bit
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04-30-2009 08:57 |
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Kalessin
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The media coverage of this has annoyed the hell out of me, they're desperate for each new case, you could almost see them panting for it to be officially declared a pandemic, just so they could create a massive mediastorm about it. In fact the coverage and panic it creates is more worrying to me than the flu itself. Handing out ineffective facemasks will either create a false sense of security or increase paranoia and panic, but its unlikely to help stop the spread of the disease because when damp the virus can pass right through.
Immediately a new case is reported all the news agencies send their reporters there, I'm sorry but hasn't the idea of 'quarrantine' occured to anyone? Perhaps sending reporters from London to where the outbreak started, then flying them home, is just asking for trouble? That's how cases in the Uk STARTED.
Sorry but disease is a natural part of life, its an arms race that has never really stopped. We're all lucky in that we haven't actually experienced a pandemic in our lifetimes, but its perfectly natural, viruses are clever little things, and in an evolutionary sense anything on a winning strategy will survive and spread until a successful counter-strategy is established.
"A senior health official in Europe says it is not a question of whether people in Europe will die, but how many - perhaps hundreds or thousands." ... this is incredibly sensationalist and irresponsible 
'"It really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic," WHO Director General Margaret Chan said in Geneva.'
... so far, 1 toddler has died outside of Mexico.
Nobody gets this worked up about malaria, because it doesn't affect the rich west, but it kills over 1 MILLION PEOPLE per year!
Oh, and you can't catch it from pork, so don't worry about that
Edit - ok, I have more to say 
| quote: |
Originally posted by Raxis
it may, and this sounds callous, but it may actually helop vut the number of AIDS sufferers.... I really hate saying that, but I will anyway |
| quote: |
Originally posted by Raxis
THa'ts not quite what he meant raserei.... but yes ultimately evolution IS survival of the fittest... because of technology genetically we are inferior to most species |
So... you believe a pandemic may root out the 'weak' and leave the 'fit' with more resources so they can in fact have a better quality of life? That is sometimes how selective pressures such as disease work, however many of the deaths in Mexico were amongst people of working age, who were fit and healthy before they became infected.
There is no such thing as group selection, although many textbooks still advocate that there are forces which act 'for the good of the species', this is a fallacy. Even the term 'species' is a human-defined concept, it has no objective reality. Disease CAN remove the young, the old and the weak, but as stated this particular strain also kills those you deem 'fittest'. In fact, what the disease will do if it DOES become a pandemic and infect most communities, is kill those who don't have resistance to it. If there are genes that confer resistance to it, they may not be in what you deem 'fit' individuals at all - look at sickle cell anemia. It is recessive and confers genetic resistance to malaria when heterozygous and so is found commonly in Africa - however if it occurs homozygously (ie both alleles have the sickle cell gene) the recipient will most likely die in childhood, as it is a debilitating disease.
Its not survival of the fittest, its just survival. There's no grand plan, no directed evolutionary motion towards the 'genetic perfection' of a strong super-race... LOL sorry to make you sound like a Nazi, thats not what I'm trying to get at
Much as I agree that modern medicine has left many individuals genetically susceptible to disease, because without it they would have died young and not passed on their 'defective' genes, the very gene for resistance to any pressure may occur only in autistic children or something - it doesn't have to lead to improvements at all.
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This post has been edited 3 time(s), it was last edited by Kalessin: 04-30-2009 11:10.
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04-30-2009 10:32 |
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spawnraloom
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hmmm my comment seem friutless arfter Kalessin's reports
is it bad that as soon as i hear about the flu and that it might come and whipe out loads of ppl.....
i whent and played a game were you whipe out the world with a virus......
tbh im not worried about it... it would be a waist of life to worry about it.....
if it kills you would you of prefered to just of lived happy rather than lived in the fear of dieing from it???
i know which i would choose
(brakes open the keg sits in a chair and waits and watchs)
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04-30-2009 12:21 |
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Kalessin
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04-30-2009 12:29 |
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Kalessin
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In the West, statistsically they are far, far more likely to die of lifestyle-related diseases or a car crash or something far more mundane. Do you spend all day worrying about what could possibly kill your family? You'd be better off shouting "DON'T EAT THAT PACKET OF CRISPS! ITS PRACTICALLY A GRENADE! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD HAVE AN APPLE!!" at them
I spend my time enjoying my family's conversation instead 
You can't wrap the world in cotton wool, we are ALL going to die someday, of something, yes there are sensible steps you can take (I wash my hands immediately upon getting home no matter where I've been, and managed to avoid Fresher's Flu last year completely
)... but the media are whipping people into a tear-filled frenzy PRIMARILY BECAUSE it sells their papers. That is their concern, not honest representation of the facts as they are - just look at the sensationalist quotes in my first post! I can't be arsed to re-quote them...
Studies do show that the public consistently over-estimate the dangers of things that are media sensationalised, and consistently UNDER-estimate the daily things that are actually more likely to be dangerous to them. We may all know that heart disease is a major risk, but its an every day one that we're accustomed to, and generally tend to ignore if we fancy a pint and a burger... that doesn't sell papers though :/ See here:
"The SARS situation was a classic case of the sudden and dramatic arrival of a risk of unknown quantity. But most of the information that the public received about SARS came, of course, via the media. SARS was a big story. Misery reporting or dread news attracts audience interest and enhances the marketability of news. “Killer bug threatens millions” is an arresting headline which can trigger public alarm and even panic in a manner which might be quite disproportionate to the actual risk in question.
Interestingly the subject of SARS dropped out of the media spotlight almost as quickly as it emerged. “No further deaths from SARS” is not a story. This illustrates a kind of “out of sight, out of mind” approach.
Thus, the issue for public authorities becomes one of how to transmit clear and accurate risk messages against the backdrop of some sections of the media apparently intent on maximising hysteria and building up and maintaining the story."
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04-30-2009 13:21 |
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Cthulhu
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04-30-2009 13:35 |
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Zer
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04-30-2009 13:41 |
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Cthulhu
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Zer
but i think some are really going towards the conspiracy USA theories |
Would that have anything to do with African Killer Bees.
That thought crossed my mind when I first heard the reports the other day - Obama just in presidency, the opposition are desperate to smear his popularity. They know they can't have a go at black america anymore, so they start on the Mexican immigrants instead.... hmm, good food for thought.
I forgot you were from Mexico, Z, is it very crazy there at the moment? Give the BW gang an insight on "reality".
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04-30-2009 13:52 |
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Raserei
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Kalessin you are most correct, the media is once again overplaying this flu like it's some sort of political propoganda. IMHO, based on my own personal experiences, the reason it is the young working working age people in La Gloria that caught the flu is because they were the ones working IN the factory (there is a pig farm not far from the suspected ground zero). Then unknowingly bring it home and it spreads. I'm sure they were fit and fairly healthy but some parts of Mexico are very rural (just as in any country) and some of the people are not able to have many luxuries like sanitary water in the home, which in turn can possibly lead to poor hygeine through no fault of their own.
I still do believe it is survival of the fittest even if it's just survival for that moment in time. Ever been around somebody that has the common cold and not get it?
There is a wide range of things that affects our immune system and each one can play a role in our threshold against disease. I highly doubt this flu strain has the potential to cause such an evolutionary response as malaria being that the flu and malaria attack the body in different ways. Genetic evolution can occur without such extreme change, for example...AIDs. There are some in Africa that are believed to have built up a resistance to HIV without such extreme cell changes. (It would be fairer to compare malaria and AIDs because both attack in a more similar fashion within the cells than the flu so that's why I mentioned AIDs)
You said : "Sorry but disease is a natural part of life, its an arms race that has never really stopped. We're all lucky in that we haven't actually experienced a pandemic in our lifetimes, but its perfectly natural, viruses are clever little things, and in an evolutionary sense anything on a winning strategy will survive and spread until a successful counter-strategy is established."
Exactly, it IS an arms race!! Who is best prepared, best able to deal with such an outbreak. I think us humans like to think we are on the winning side and will survive because we are more intelligent than a microbe....aren't we? Surely the human race won't be outwitted by just a single microbe and the whole Darwin/Kimura/whomever theory
Upon further research, the swine flu IS a mutated form of human, pig AND bird flu AND has killed over 150 in Mexico, not just one little boy. It is spreading through the U.S but my guess is that the only reason these people know they have it is because of the media overkill that has been imposed. They likely paniced and rushed themselves to the nearest ER convinced they were infected and by chance, they were.
Another note to add, We in the West do care about Malaria believe it or not. It is a very hard disease to control since it is transmitted by mosquitos and even some types of exotic birds (can't recall which atm) although that is a different strain.
Sorry about the jumbled up thoughts, I'm not good at multitasking!
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04-30-2009 15:41 |
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Kalessin
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Raserei
I think us humans like to think we are on the winning side and will survive because we are more intelligent than a microbe....aren't we? Surely the human race won't be outwitted by just a single microbe and the whole Darwin/Kimura/whomever theory
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I disagree - micro-organisms were the first to exist, and have been evolving for just as long as everything else - longer in fact, because they were around first. The vast, vast majority of biodiversity comes in the form of bacteria, and in terms of sheer numbers and varieties of biochemistry, survival strategy and reproductive capacity, humans are MASSIVELY outwitted by the bugs
Humans have invented language and given it meaning and assume their models and descriptions of the world are real, but this is not the same thing as objective reality... but this is becoming too philosophical
Taking humans to mean solely anatomically modern humans, ie not our more 'primitive' ancestors, have been around for 200,000 years give or take... microbes have existed for literally BILLIONS of years. In my view, they are vastly more 'intelligent' than us, and far better equipped to survive evolutionary time. Humans are newcomers, our species hasn't stood the test of time. No population expands forever, if it did the universe would be chock full of bacteria to the edges of the universe and no other life forms would have evolved
If you look at the world population explosion, we are on the part of a graph called the 'exponential' phase... what happens after this in nature (which we are), is a population crash. It may be famine, disease or aliens but the point is, there WILL be a crash. The test will be whether we level off at a natural carrying capacity of the earth (and it requires no 'higher consciousness' to do this, its a natural result of birth rates, death rates, and pressures in between.. populations do it all the time, from bacteria through jellyfish to foxes), or whether we crash to extinction as many populations do. In fact the vast, vast majority of species which have existed, probably something likek 99.99%, have become extinct. May as well enjoy the rollercoaster while we're on the way up, because the way back down will be very unpleasant, and I don't see that there's much we can do about it
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Upon further research, the swine flu IS a mutated form of human, pig AND bird flu AND has killed over 150 in Mexico, not just one little boy. |
| quote: |
| Kalessin... so far, 1 toddler has died outside of Mexico. |
As I stated, there has been one death outside of Mexico (in the US) - and yet the whole world is in a state of mass hysteria believing the black death to be come again! Even within Mexico, more people are dying of cancer right now. It is a response out of all proportion to the facts. And I am all about logical consistency
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This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by Kalessin: 04-30-2009 16:02.
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04-30-2009 15:58 |
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Raserei
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Kalessin, I don't disagree at all with the fact that we are outwitted by simple microbes...my comment was intended to be more on the sarcastic side since a majority of the human race thinks we are far superior to some silly microbe.
The 3rd quote you have that I wrote was not directed to you but I recalled somebody else (dezza I think????) said that one child had died, I was pointing out that it had been a bit more than that one child. You're right, it is just one child in the U.S and he was from Mexico visiting family, it was by chance that he died here and not in Mexico.
I also totally agree that the general public and govt. response is WAY out of wack, there isn't much anyone can do other than the typical flu precautions...washing hands, covering ones mouth with a cough/sneeze, etc...but it's not a failsafe. LOL I'll leave the probabilities and statistics to the ones who get paid to do it, I have more important things to do like live life and be happy
....I hate math and math hates me! lol
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04-30-2009 16:38 |
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Paranoia
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04-30-2009 20:04 |
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Hayz_M
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well I have an idea as to why the Swine flu came about .. but UG & Joe3 wont appreciate it
lol I already got told I was sick lmao ..
UG thats a good game to play in ICT when Im supposed to be doing work
I killed everyone
But really its not funny.. People are dying O_o GET A MEDICINE THING..
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04-30-2009 20:11 |
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Raserei
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Resident Evil?! SWEET!!!
LOL I've gotta hear it Hayz
PM it to me if ya want
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04-30-2009 20:18 |
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Gder
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I just hope that it will be pandemic and many people will die from it.
You may think that I'm crazy or evil but I'm not. We need global disasster like this swine flu to show all those rich and stupid people that you don't need to take antibiotic for normal sickness. It is because of this those virus evolve so fast to such dangerous things.
In future if we don't stop living like we do now we will for 100% percent die from much more stronger virus so let's hope that people will learn something from this dissasster.
I didn't take any antibiotic or any medicine for my entire life and I still live.
I like to talk about science
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04-30-2009 20:42 |
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NouveauNosferatu
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Kalessin
Immediately a new case is reported all the news agencies send their reporters there, I'm sorry but hasn't the idea of 'quarrantine' occured to anyone? Perhaps sending reporters from London to where the outbreak started, then flying them home, is just asking for trouble? That's how cases in the Uk STARTED.
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Hehe, this made me laugh.
I'm as sickened by the sensationalist nature of the reporting of the pandemic, but i think to be blaming the spread of the virus solely on journalists is a bit unfair.
Has there been any actual reports that everyone infected in the UK is or has been in contact with a journalist?
Far as i know, the first reported infections here were a Scottish couple who had been on honeymoon in Mexico.
So criticise them for their coverage, but let's not blame them for the spread ;-)
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04-30-2009 21:07 |
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