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DarkOne
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i have the feeling that the update routine is not really 80% i just used about 13 BS to upgrade a sniper rifle and it failed 8 times ... that would be more like a 20% chance of successful upgrade than 80%
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02-01-2008 18:31 |
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Azz420
Lord
Registration Date: 04-11-2007
Posts: 384
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i get that feeling on far quests as well sometimes 
and dont get me started on +5 upgrades to GOOD :/
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02-01-2008 19:58 |
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Evil-Eoin
Triple Ace
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lol We all have our stories I'd say. TWICE it's taken me 13 bloodstones to get an item from Normal +3 to Normal +4 ... I know it's all probability and you're not guaranteed four successes from every five attempts on 80%, but it certainly feels more like 60-70% for me when I'm upgrading with bloodstones.
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02-01-2008 20:26 |
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DarkOne
Lord
Registration Date: 11-12-2007
Posts: 359
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243 BS including merges or 243 pure bs ?
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02-01-2008 21:19 |
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DarkOne
Lord
Registration Date: 11-12-2007
Posts: 359
Location: Germany
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ouch
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The Laws of Darkness are not known to the world
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02-01-2008 21:27 |
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Evil-Eoin
Triple Ace
Registration Date: 08-28-2007
Posts: 199
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243 BS?? That's just not possible on 80%!!! I feel kinda silly with my 13 BS now lol
Still, I bet upgrading your Cap of Precognition to Good +5 without a fail made up for it! 
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Don't you realise that evil lives in the skin
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02-01-2008 21:38 |
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Evil-Eoin
Triple Ace
Registration Date: 08-28-2007
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Except we're not talking about getting it all the way...we're talking about bad luck in upgrading it by one level
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02-05-2008 09:27 |
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sleepezy
Junior Member
Registration Date: 10-22-2007
Posts: 10
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The only real way to compare the relative success of upgrading is with a larger sample size
In an event where there are two options you need a sample size of about 50 (if my memory serves me correct, it's been some time)
I too am unconvinced by some of the odds on this game, not just upgrading, although it is the easiest to monitor, and have been recording my upgrades for a short period
Over the past 35 upgrades i have been successful 65.7% of the time (this has included both lucky and unluck streaks)
i may be an unlucky vamp, or be about to have a run of success 
but from that measurement the upgrading appears lower than it should
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02-05-2008 12:13 |
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diablo
The contract has expired - former moderator.
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02-05-2008 13:54 |
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DarkOne
Lord
Registration Date: 11-12-2007
Posts: 359
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sure its 25% i mean he had speed armour on so - xx%
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The Laws of Darkness are not known to the world
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02-05-2008 17:21 |
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diablo
The contract has expired - former moderator.
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| quote: |
Originally posted by DarkOne
sure its 25% i mean he had speed armour on so - xx% |
Nothing of Speed, he is a Gunman with Born with a gun in hand tattoo lvl4. All tattoos were working (otherwise he wouldn't get the extra attack) and still ZERO criticals.
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02-05-2008 18:04 |
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Zeruel
Triple Ace
Registration Date: 02-28-2007
Posts: 204
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It is 80%. Someone on polish board wrote a "well of souls simulator" that can make 10 000 tries in no time
Statistically you need 8 BS to upgrade item from 0 to +5. So everything below 8 is good luck and above is bad luck.
Other interesting facts
From 0 to good: 13 BS 2 LS
From good to good +5: 69 BS, 29 HS, 20 LS
From good to perfect: 228 BS, 95 HS, 68 LS
From perfect to perfect +1: 565 BS, 222 HS, 163 LS, 4 SS, 4 items (3 were destroyed)
I don't think that I have to comment this
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02-05-2008 19:10 |
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Cthulhu
Viking
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80% my a***!!
I know others have had worse - but I just tried to upgrade something from +4 to +5; it took me 7 BS, & the item is now at +3.
That's 2 successful upgrades out of 7; that by my calculation is approx 28%.
If someone has a fantastic upgrade simulator as Zeruel suggests, I say let him do the simulation again & publish the results so we can all see, please. Cos I am hacked off with this bulls**t percentage chance. 
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ENCHANTMENT
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04-19-2008 10:03 |
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Roostie
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To be honest I think the upgrade statistic is sound, you do have runs of good and bad and as usual no one talks about the good runs. However I think the pilgrimages are a different story. It took me a 100 quests to get the first 4 pilgramages, thats a 4% chance. Now given that my % for success for each quest was anywhere between 25% and 45% there has to be something wrong.
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04-19-2008 17:01 |
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nelacar
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i think its all down to luck.i upgraded my light dagger of agility to good+5 with out a fail.so i taught was very lucky.it then cost me 7bs and a few ls trying to get my crule dagger to good and its still +5.
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04-19-2008 18:23 |
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Szeszej
Administrator
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You should've kept it on good +3, the calculus of probability is very capriscious
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04-20-2008 23:28 |
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Cthulhu
Viking
Registration Date: 11-29-2007
Posts: 726
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Szeszej
You should've kept it on good +3, the calculus of probability is very capriscious
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I know this is an old thread - & if I get a warning for necro-posting then I'll happily accept it, because I want to resurrect it for 2 reasons:
1) The 80% chance is no where near 80%. FACT. If it is, then I would like the Devs to please PROVE IT. Because even though you believe it is & happily state that it is; WE the PLAYERS have a big problem with this element of the game.
2) Sze, your reply to this relevant & justifiable complaint is not only un-informative, but slightly condescending. WE understand that the probability is "capricious" - THAT IS OUR COMPLAINT!!!
If you say something has an 80%, it should have a constant 80% chance - i.e. every time you press the "Upgrade" button, you get 80%. As the system stands at the moment, I & many others in this game, do not believe this is the case, and we would like you to take another look at the algorithm.
I would like to also point out this current description on the tutorial:
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May people wonder why, despite of high chance, several quests/attacks in a row fail. This may also happen in upgrading items, and other statistical chances.
It's a normal occurance which is characteristic of randomness: with only a few tries a significant STATISTIC ERROR occurs. It means that value given may considerably differ from statistical value.
Anyone who has enough patience to make several thousends of tries will become conviced that the more tries there are, the closer the chance is to statistical value. |
My point of argument with this?
Obviously with a 1000 tries, the chance of success is likely to become an even 80%. OUR argument is - we do not have 1000's of bloodstones! Therefore, we are not getting an even 80%. So by your own words, we are expected to continously loose BS's because we are only ever trying "with only a few tries", & so we will NEVER meet the "statistical value".
So; you either increase the chance of success to something that is reasonable; or you create a better working algorithm. Personally I don't care which one of these you opt to do, but I do care that you actually take notice of a complaint when you see one & respond with an appropriate answer, and not just a flippant remark.
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08-26-2008 14:37 |
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God_Like_Friend
Lord
Registration Date: 03-31-2008
Posts: 489
Location: England
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I think it's not a perfect algorithm but it doesn't mean that you won't fail, if you fail 8 out of 13 times then you know it's most likely with an 80% chance success rate that the next upgrades will be a success but you aren't trying to upgrade further which is why you find this problem.
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Szeszej
And btw Agresiel your signature needs an update, it's more than a year now
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Ingame: R1 NoOb-G R2 NoOb-GoD - ID 7
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08-26-2008 15:39 |
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Serafine
Triple Ace
Registration Date: 03-13-2008
Posts: 188
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| quote: |
Originally posted by Arkady
I'm not sure you guys understand statistics.
If you want to get an item from 0 to +5, each with a chance of 80%, then the actual chance of doing it all in one go is: .8 * .8 * .8 * .8 * .8 = .32768 or 32.7%
Even if you guys are having a bad run, it just balances all the times you've had a good run. |
I understand statistics fine, was an Honors Math student. What about those of us who have nothing but bad runs.
| quote: |
Originally posted by Cthulhu
If you say something has an 80%, it should have a constant 80% chance - i.e. every time you press the "Upgrade" button, you get 80%. As the system stands at the moment, I & many others in this game, do not believe this is the case, and we would like you to take another look at the algorithm. |
I agree. It shouldn't be 80% over time. Cos odds are you won't be upgrading the same item continously.
Because they say luck has a factor, and they won't explain exactly what that factor is, they shouldn't be saying something has a percentage chance. Because you cannot, what's the word, quantimize? luck.... You cannot measure it. If it's coding (which obv in the game it is) then it should be made available to us what factor it is then.
I personally have no Good Items. I consider myself lucky that most of my items are Normal +5.
Yes it gets easier as you go up the levels, because you can use Ritual of Blood and spend piles of stones. (piles that I don't, and won't ever, have)
I don't think you should get a warning for necro posting on this. I think something new has been brought to the thread.
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08-26-2008 23:38 |
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Evangelion
The warning machine
Registration Date: 03-01-2007
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Nothing new has been brought to the thread. The only thing you do is complain on your luck, which isn't related to the game system. The upgrading and questing algorithm works good, you are just unlucky. The worst thing is that you can't prove that the algorithms are working bad and the Dev Team can't prove their algirithm is working good. The only thing you can do is hope that your next upgrade will succeed.
necrol, your calculations indeed are for quests/ambushes but the point is that the more tests you do the closer you get to the theoretical chance.
You won't get a warning for necroposting from me, I'm in a good mood today...
I'm leaving this thread open to see what arguments you have...
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08-27-2008 01:35 |
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VonBudde
Junior Member
Registration Date: 04-11-2008
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It just makes sad panda, if only one of your attributes has less than 90% to be succesfull and that attribute cames up 3 times out of 12 quests.
Or You try 36 hardest quests in order to get Your reputation-quest done and only once You get reputation-test.
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08-27-2008 13:34 |
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Evangelion
The warning machine
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I'm closing the thread. Nothing new has been added to the thread, you keep complaining on your bad luck. All 17934 players have the same problem which can't be solved by the Dev Team...
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08-27-2008 18:08 |
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